22 May 2026 | 11:17 CAT
4-minute read

Iran holds firm

Iran’s most recent map of the Strait of Hormuz, released by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), declares expanded control over more than 22 000  of maritime space, advancing into the territorial waters of Oman and the United Arab Emirates. It extends from Qeshm Island to Umm al-Quwain in the west and from Mount Mobarak to south of Fujairah in the east.

This map—alongside efforts by the newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority and live transit enforcement—delivers a firm message: Iran is not capitulating. Despite US President Donald Trump’s assertions that a peace deal is within grasp, Iran is leveraging its physical dominance over the waterway to establish recognised sovereign control and secure guarantees before making any nuclear concessions.

During this week’s Middle East Report, analyst James Dorsey said that Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and at least one senior Iranian official are expressing optimism.

“But neither Iran nor the United States has publicly indicated a softening of their mutually exclusive positions,” he said.

Ongoing peace negotiations are deadlocked because both Washington and Tehran view the conflict through the lens of their own perceived victories, leading to conflicting, maximalist demands, Dorsey observed.

The asymmetry in how the two define “victory” is the central obstacle to a final peace agreement, and while neither side wants a return to active combat, the political math creates two vastly different bars for success.

“At this point, both Trump and Iran don’t want a revival of hostilities, but each need to be able to credibly declare victory to end the war. That may be easier for Iran than for Trump. Survival is victory for Iran. Trump has yet to achieve any of his war goals,” Dorsey explained.

The only promising sign, according to Dorsey, is that Pakistan has stepped up diplomatic efforts to salvage the fragile ceasefire, with Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir having travelled to Tehran to deliver the latest US proposals to Iranian leadership.

If war resumes, Pakistani mediation efforts could be in jeopardy

Analysts warn that if the war starts again, Pakistan could easily get dragged directly into the battlefield. This situation is made worse because Pakistan’s two biggest wealthy neighbours—Saudi Arabia and the UAE—completely disagree on how to handle Iran. This Saudi-UAE rift has crippled Pakistan’s foreign policy leeway because it is deeply dependent on Gulf financial bailouts to stave off economic collapse.

“For now, Pakistan retains the lead in mediation efforts… Even so, Pakistan walks a tightrope,” Dorsey said.

Dorsey explained that even though the South Asian nation wants to remain a neutral referee, it has signed agreements that make neutrality almost impossible if bullets start flying again.

In September last year, Pakistan signed a military deal promising to defend Saudi Arabia and has already sent 8 000 troops and a squadron of fighter jets to Saudi. If Iran attacks Saudi Arabia again, Pakistan’s soldiers will be forced to fight back.

“At the same time, Pakistan is on one side of a dispute between Saudi Arabia and the UAE that is playing out in South Asia, with Pakistan aligned with the kingdom and the Emirates cuddling up to India. India and the UAE last week agreed on a framework for strategic defence partnership.”

Divergent Gulf state responses to Iran war

According to reports, the UAE is taking an aggressive stance and has allegedly launched secret attacks against Iran and is calling for a full military alliance to crush it. On the other hand, the Saudis don’t want their oil facilities blown up and are thus calling for a diplomatic solution.

Dorsey noted that these divergent responses to the Iran war are not new developments but rather reflect long-standing divisions embedded in the structure of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) itself. When the council was established in 1981, member states already held differing perceptions of regional threats. While most Gulf countries viewed Iran as their primary concern, Oman stood apart, seeing the Soviet Union and its support for neighbouring South Yemen as the greater danger.

Today, those divisions continue to shape regional policy. While many Gulf states increasingly view Israel as a security concern alongside Iran, the UAE and Bahrain have adopted a firmer stance towards Tehran and have moved closer to Israel. The UAE’s recent withdrawal from OPEC further highlights widening policy differences within the Gulf bloc.

“The exceptions are the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, who have adopted a harder line in the war with Iran and are forging closer ties to Israel. The UAE highlighted the increasing divergence in policies with its exit earlier this month from OPEC.”

A recent paper by Gulf academics acknowledged that achieving a unified Gulf approach towards Iran was unlikely. Instead, the authors suggested that Gulf states focus on aligning their threat perceptions and strategic messaging. However, even that appears difficult to achieve.

The challenge has become more visible in international diplomacy. A draft United Nations Security Council resolution backed by the US and Bahrain, which called for an end to Iran’s disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, exposed broader geopolitical fault lines, particularly between Washington and Beijing. Although the draft was softened to ease Chinese and Russian concerns that it could be used to justify military action under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, there are few indications that those concerns have been resolved.

According to Dorsey, China appears in no rush to assist the US in bringing the conflict to a close. Beijing has strategic reasons for allowing Washington to remain heavily engaged in the Middle East, as such involvement absorbs American diplomatic, military, and political attention that might otherwise be concentrated on the Indo-Pacific and competition with China.

Listen to the Middle East Report with James Dorsey on Sabaahul Muslim, presented by Moulana Habib Bobat.