Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za
3-minute read
28 January 2026

📸 As elections near, the GNU’s true test will be service delivery not slogans, but real change felt on the ground.

At the start of 2026, South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) is projecting an image of calm after a turbulent first year marked by public spats and policy disagreements. With budgets passed and tensions seemingly eased, political analysts caution that the apparent stability may be less about cohesion and more about restraint ahead of looming local government elections.

Political analyst Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast says the GNU does appear more stable than it did a year ago, but warns that coalition politics are inherently fraught. “There is no coalition arrangement on the face of the earth that is perfect,” he said, adding that conflict is inevitable. The real test, according to Breakfast, lies in whether coalition partners have effective mechanisms to manage disagreements rather than allowing them to fracture the alliance.

Fiscal policy remains one of the GNU’s most contentious areas. Dr Breakfast noted that while some partners, including the ANC, favour a more expansionary approach, others have pushed for tighter fiscal discipline. “On the whole there is a sense of stability,” he said, despite ongoing “ups and downs”.

Professor Sipho Seepe echoed this view, arguing that the reduced public fighting reflects a phase where major policy battles have already been fought. “The running of government from day to day is almost normal,” he said, adding that political posturing tends to intensify only when major policy decisions are on the table.

However, Seepe stressed that the GNU will not be judged on how well its partners get along, but on tangible outcomes. “If you take the notion of poverty reduction, it has failed. If we talk about job creation, it has failed,” he said, noting that infrastructure reform and governance improvements have also fallen short in the eyes of many voters.

Performance assessments of ministers further complicate the picture. Seepe pointed out that of those receiving poor performance scores, “18 of them… are members of the ANC”, while some non-ANC ministers have been more vocal about delivery. He added that by-election results since 2024 show declining ANC support, suggesting voter impatience with underperformance.

As local government elections approach, analysts agree that the GNU’s fragile calm may not hold. Parties are expected to reassert their individual identities and campaign on track records rather than unity. “It will no longer be the promises, the rhetoric, it will be people’s experience on the ground,” Seepe said.

Ultimately, both analysts agree that the local elections will serve as the real stress test for the GNU revealing whether it is a viable model for governance or merely a temporary ceasefire in South Africa’s evolving coalition era.

Listen to the full interview on Sabahul Muslim with Annisa Essack, dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast and Professor Sipho Seepe.