Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za
3-minute read
05 March 2026

South Africans may currently be experiencing some relief at the pumps, with fuel prices hovering near a four-year low, but global geopolitical tensions could soon reverse the trend.

Economist Dawie Roodt has warned that escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly involving Israel, the United States and Iran, may have far-reaching consequences for global oil markets and, ultimately, for South Africa’s fuel prices.

At midnight this week, motorists saw slight increases in fuel costs, with petrol rising by around 20 cents per litre while diesel climbed by between 62 and 65 cents per litre. While the increases may appear modest, analysts caution that they could signal the beginning of greater price pressure.

Roodt explained that global developments in the oil market and currency fluctuations play a critical role in determining South Africa’s fuel prices.

“As an economist, I have to give you a couple of scenarios,” he said. “But if things remain as they are, then I’m afraid it’s not good news for South Africa and not good news for the world.”

According to Roodt, oil prices have already climbed above $80 per barrel, while the rand has weakened, creating a double impact for local consumers.

“The weaker rand means that you have to pay more for oil, and the oil price itself went up,” he said. “Inevitably what is going to happen is that petrol prices will go up, diesel prices will go up, and it will put upward pressure on inflation.”

Rising fuel costs could also influence monetary policy. South Africa recently lowered its inflation target to 3%, but increasing energy costs may complicate the Reserve Bank’s plans.

“Previously I thought that the Reserve Bank could reduce interest rates by as much as 50 basis points,” Roodt explained. “What happens now is that the Reserve Bank is unlikely to reduce interest rates soon.”

He added that even if tensions ease and oil prices stabilise, the economic impact of the current geopolitical uncertainty may linger.

“A shock like this is likely to result in weak economic growth,” he noted.

A more severe scenario could emerge if critical global shipping routes are disrupted. Roodt highlighted the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit point, as a major risk.

“That leads to a significant increase in the price of oil. Some analysts suggest even as much as $120,” he said.

Despite some optimism that rising metal prices could support South Africa’s mining sector during global uncertainty, Roodt remains cautious.

“I can’t see a good scenario for South Africa as things stand at the moment,” he said.

For now, motorists may still benefit from relatively moderate fuel prices but global developments suggest the reprieve could be short-lived.

Listen to the full interview on Sabahul Muslim with Moulana Junaid Kharsany and Dawie Roodt.