Sameera Casmod | sameerac@radioislam.co.za
16 April 2026 | 13:16 CAT
3-minute read

The conflict in Myanmar is worsening, with rising civilian deaths, displacement, and questions arising about whether recent political moves are bringing any peace. Reports point to intensified violence on the ground despite claims of progress towards stability.

With over 96 000 fatalities and 3,6 million displaced, the crisis has reached a critical, intensified phase of epic proportions. The military is clawing back territory and pushing for elections to legitimise its rule, while a diverse resistance of over 2 600 groups continues to battle across the nation. The conflict, which evolved from a 2021 coup, shows no signs of resolution.

With the military junta controlling 21% of territory, Myanmar’s parliament is no longer a democratic institution and is thus unable to step in to end the violence. Since the February 2021 coup, the military (Tatmadaw) has dismantled the legitimate government and replaced it with a system designed to maintain military rule.

During this week’s Asia Pacific Report on Radio Islam, Human Rights Activist Debbie Stothard explained that the December 2025 general election held in Burma was an illegitimate exercise.

“This election process that went over 28th of December to mid-January actually involved a huge number, over a thousand military attacks and hundreds of airstrikes on mostly civilian targets. This sham election excluded 10,5 million voters in areas that were not under direct control of the military junta. And even in areas where the military junta was forcing people to vote, 11 million voters boycotted,” she said.

After major opposition parties were excluded or dissolved, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) claimed victory. Following the elections, Myanmar’s parliament met for the first time in five years on 16 March 2026, with the military and its allies controlling the vast majority of seats. 

Stothard, who has worked on Myanmar human rights issues for over 4 decades, noted with dismay that the polls took place under extreme circumstances. Fighting continued between the military and ethnic armed groups across several regions, with the UN reporting a death toll of almost 200 people during the election period.

Currently, the military has ramped up its “scorched earth” tactics, increasingly relying on airstrikes and heavy artillery to combat territorial losses.  

“The month of March was the deadliest month for fatalities since the coup started in 2021. 518 civilians and non-combatants were killed, mostly in airstrikes,” Stothard reported.

Reports from the beginning of this year alone document strikes on markets, schools, and displacement camps.

A notable airstrike in Rakhine State on 24 February 2026 killed at least 17 civilians, including women and children. In this area, the Arakan Army has ramped up oppressive measures against the Rohingya, including forced labour and arbitrary detention. Simultaneously, the junta has been forcibly conscripting Rohingya men to fight against the Arakan Army.

“The military stepped up attacks on Mandalay region, Arakan state, Chin state, and Bago region, and mostly with airstrikes, targeting places of worship… Across the different religions, all these places of worship usually serve as the shelter for internally displaced people. So they were targeting IDPs and they were also bombing local health facilities,” Stothard said.

To make matters worse, unregulated mining for rare earth metals in Kachin and Shan States has led to toxic contamination of local rivers, often facilitated by local militias.

Responsibility for stopping the violence in Myanmar is divided between the country’s internal actors and the international community, though a lack of unified action has allowed the conflict to persist into 2026.

The UN Security Council and the international community have largely left the solution to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the primary regional mediator.

ASEAN operates on a principle of “non-interference,” which limits its ability to force compliance. While they have excluded the junta from high-level summits, member states remain divided—democratic nations like Indonesia and Malaysia push for tougher action, while others like Cambodia and Thailand have taken softer approaches.

“Even when they call for a halt to hostilities, at least two ASEAN countries have actually facilitated the flow of aviation fuel to the military junta, which have enabled those airstrikes,” Stohard said.

Stothard recommends that ASEAN hand the wheel over to the UN Security Council. She suggests implementing a global embargo on military equipment and aviation fuel in the meantime.

Listen to the Asia Pacific Report with Debbie Stothard on Sabaahul Muslim, presented by Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat.