Sameera Casmod | sameerac@radioislam.co.za
19 February 2025 | 13:15 CAT
3-minute read

US-Russia negotiations on Ukraine take centre stage in Riyadh

Riyadh has emerged as the unlikely venue for high-stakes negotiations between the United States and Russia over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The discussions, which notably exclude Ukraine itself, underscore broader geopolitical shifts and strategic interests that extend beyond the war-torn country.

Why Riyadh?

The decision to hold talks in Saudi Arabia is driven by two primary factors. First, Riyadh seeks to enhance its diplomatic reputation and solidify its status as a key player in international negotiations. Saudi Arabia has previously positioned itself as a mediator in other conflicts, including the Sudan peace talks. Hosting these negotiations aligns with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitions to establish the kingdom as a hub for diplomacy and strategic dialogue.

Second, neither the US nor Russia has major disputes with Saudi Arabia, making it a neutral ground for negotiations. Given the complex web of alliances in Europe, selecting a venue that would not alienate any parties was a key consideration. Additionally, the move allows bin Salman to rebuild diplomatic bridges following tensions over former US President Donald Trump’s policies in the region.

Trump’s strategy and the US-Russia dynamic

As the US gears up for its next presidential election, Trump has framed himself as a dealmaker capable of ending the conflict swiftly. His administration’s approach to Russia is twofold: first, fostering closer ties with Moscow than previous US administrations, and second, using Russia as a counterweight against China in an evolving global power struggle.

This strategic pivot suggests that a negotiated settlement over Ukraine could be tied to broader US objectives, including lifting sanctions on Russia in exchange for Moscow’s cooperation in countering Beijing’s influence. However, a significant obstacle remains—the exclusion of Ukraine from negotiations raises concerns about the legitimacy and viability of any potential deal.

Media reactions and global perceptions

Media coverage of the negotiations varies significantly depending on geopolitical perspectives. Western media outlets have largely criticised the talks, highlighting concerns about Ukraine’s absence from discussions about its own future. Reports have also pointed to concessions made by the US at the Munich Security Conference, particularly regarding NATO and territorial sovereignty, as signs of a weakening Western stance.

Meanwhile, media in the Global South and Eastern nations have focused on the potential economic implications of an agreement, including the impact on grain and oil prices. This divergence in coverage reflects the broader polarisation surrounding the conflict and its geopolitical ramifications.

Challenges to a resolution

Despite the diplomatic efforts in Riyadh, the likelihood of a swift resolution remains uncertain. The fundamental issue lies in the misalignment of interests between the key players. While the US and Russia may find common ground, European nations and Ukraine itself may resist any settlement that compromises Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Additionally, within the US, opposition to aligning with Russia remains strong among security officials. Questions persist over whether Trump’s administration could impose a settlement on Ukraine and whether such an agreement could be sustained in the long term. Analysts predict that if a deal fails to address Ukraine’s sovereignty over its eastern territories, low-intensity conflict could persist, prolonging instability in the region.

The negotiations in Riyadh signal a broader shift towards a multipolar world order, where power dynamics are no longer dictated solely by Western influence. The growing divide between the US and its European allies, coupled with Russia’s strategic positioning, suggests that global alliances are being reshaped in real time.

While the Riyadh talks may not bring an immediate end to the conflict, they highlight the evolving nature of international diplomacy.

Listen to the Media Lens on Sabaahul Muslim with Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat.