Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za

3-minute read
15 July 2024 | 15:19 CAT

Demographers from the University of Cape Town’s Centre for Actuarial Research, Prof Tom Moultrie and Emeritus Professor Rob Dorrington, with their extensive experience in analysing post-apartheid South African census data, have identified significant issues with the 2022 South African census. Their expertise lends weight to their conclusion that the results of this census, with the highest undercount ever measured and reported by the United Nations Population Division, may not be fit for purpose.

Professor Tom Moultrie and Emeritus Professor Rob Dorrington said the census undercount was as high as 31%, the highest they had ever encountered.

“Despite adjustments made for the undercount, the census results, in October 2023, present numerous anomalies, making them more estimations than exact counts.”

A census is primarily as accurate a count as possible of the number of people in a country at a point in time. It attempts to describe the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population and provides key benchmark estimates of fertility and mortality.

Census data are also crucial for planning investment and determining the allocation of resources by public and private sector entities. In particular, a census provides information about small-area populations that is usually not available from other sources.

They stressed that these anomalies question the accuracy of the census data and their usefulness for critical functions such as resource allocation, investment planning, and public policy decision-making. This could potentially lead to the misallocation of resources and the formulation of ineffective policies, highlighting the gravity of the situation.

In their findings, they said the national population may have been overestimated by about one million people, or nearly 2% after adjusting for the undercount. This overestimation could significantly impact resource allocation and policy-making, potentially leading to resource misallocation and the implementation of ineffective policies.

Census data, which are used to make decisions about where to build houses, schools, infrastructure, and factories, hold significant weight in shaping the country’s future.

Listen o the full interview on The Daily Round Up with Moulana Junaid Khasrany and Professor Tom Moultrie here.