Sameera Casmod | sameerac@radioislam.co.za
7 May 2026 | 12:27 CAT
3-minute read

US-Israel war on Iran: Update

The United States and Iran are reportedly nearing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to end the months-long direct military conflict. The potential deal is a one-page, 14-point memorandum intended to trigger a 30-day period for resolving core issues.

“The Iranians are working through a 14-point plan, which is similar to the plan they initially submitted. In that sense, strategically the Iranians are winning,” Hafidh Ibrahim said during this week’s Media Lens on Radio Islam International.

Trump has suspended “Project Freedom”—a US military operation to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz—supposedly to give the negotiations a chance to succeed. But according to analysts, he is also searching for a face-saving exit: a way to de-escalate the conflict while still allowing the US to claim at least a limited victory.

“Trump’s looking for an off-ramp because he wants to end the conflict. However, it’s difficult, especially looking at the US situation, to find any victories for the US. And that’s actually making him carry on,” Hafidh Ibrahim said.

Effect on Gulf 

The conflict has had a significant impact on the Gulf states, particularly the UAE, with Iran launching retaliatory missile and drone attacks on various areas in the region.

The Emirati government is reportedly downplaying the severity of the attacks to maintain its image of safety and stability. It is also accused of controlling information and suppressing public discussion—including arresting people over private messages—in an effort to preserve the perception of security. The conflict is now threatening both the Gulf’s reputation as a safe haven and its economic standing.

The initial wave of attacks on the Gulf states in late February 2026 was a direct response to “Operation Epic Fury”, the massive US-Israeli coordinated airstrike that targeted Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure. Iran targeted the UAE specifically because it hosts critical US military infrastructure, such as the Al Dhafra Air Base.

While a fragile ceasefire was established on April 8, recent strikes on May 4 and 5 have disrupted the period of relative calm. Iran launched a renewed barrage against UAE territory, reportedly in response to the US-led “Project Freedom” mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The repercussions of the attacks have been severe. The initial strikes in February triggered a combined $120 billion loss in value for the Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock exchanges. Repeated strikes on the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone and the Ruwais Industrial Complex have forced temporary shutdowns of major refineries and storage facilities. Oil production has dropped by up to 800 000 barrels per day at times.

As the world’s busiest hub for international travel, Dubai International Airport has faced multiple temporary closures and thousands of flight cancellations. Meanwhile, investors have begun shifting assets and capital out of Dubai to perceived safer havens like Singapore and Switzerland.

Analysts argue that Gulf states may have benefited more from transparency than censorship, but instead chose to suppress dissent and control the narrative.

While the UAE is expected to use its spare oil capacity and economic incentives to attract investment in the short term, concerns over security and shifting global priorities — including pressure from the Trump administration for companies to return to the US — could make a full recovery of its reputation as a safe investment hub difficult.

“The UAE… has a lot of spare oil capacity, production capacity, and it wants to use that economic protection plan to promote investments again. It may work in the short term, but it does seem as if many of these companies will reconsider… it’s unlikely that safety and that investment destination will fully recover. However, if incentives are enough, there will be replacement companies that would want to invest in the Emirates,” Deen said.

Listen to the Media Lens with Hafidh Ibrahim on Sabaahul Muslim, presented by Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat.